Monty Hall

[andrewducker]

[Poll #1770413]

Explanation

I have known what the answer was for ages, but for some reason it only "clicked" in my head today. You can blame sarahs_muse for triggering it.

Comments

[bracknellexile.livejournal.com]

I should maybe have clarified: "I do not believe that switching is beneficial" includes both, "I believe that switching is harmful (<50/50)" and, "It doesn't matter (50/50)" which is two of the three possible answers lumped together.

Maybe Andy intended the irony in lumping 2/3 of the wrong answers together in a problem where the right answer gets you the prize 2/3 of the time - after all, we all know how he likes to polarise his polls :)

(I still think that "It doesn't matter" should be separate given it's such a popular conclusion).

[andrewducker]

Yup. I've never heard anyone claim that not switching gave an advantage, so including it as an option didn't seem worthwhile.