Monty Hall

[andrewducker]

[Poll #1770413]

Explanation

I have known what the answer was for ages, but for some reason it only "clicked" in my head today. You can blame sarahs_muse for triggering it.

Comments

[dpolicar]

I should add that I also "believe" it on the philosophical grounds that probabilities (at least macroscopic linear ones) are quantifications of ignorance, not facts about the world, so it ought not surprise me that manipulating my ignorance will make things more or less probable.

But really internalizing that is hard.