In the Eurozone Greece is eventually going to say "fuck it" to the Euro. They have no other way out of this mess other than creating their own currency, devaluing it, defaulting on most of their debt and moving on. Argentina did this a few years back and while they are still cut out of credit markets their economy is surging. As long as the Greeks stay in the Eurozone they are fucked economically and people are eventually going to get tired of living on 740 euros a month.
The question is whether or not Ireland decides to go this route as well. I suspect the Irish, because they have a much higher export base and considerably less harsh austerity measures than those put on Greece might be able to grow themselves out of their troubles given time. It' a good thing their ancestors learned how to make alcoholic beverages and crystal wineglasses that are beloved around the world.
Of course, Greece leaving is going to cause most Greek banks to fail and hurt large parts of the EU economy. The Germans will bitch and moan about this but secretly be delighted because it will lower the value of the Euro against the Dollar and the Yen, which will increase sales of their already growing export industry. Cheap BMWs for everyone!
Italy will stay in and be fine because their official economic numbers mean nothing since a huge part of their economy has always been off the books and under the radar anyway which means their unemployment numbers are bullshit. People are working - they are just getting paid in cash.
France will muddle through. The lower Euro will bring more tourists to Paris and sell more wine overseas and be a boon to the Riviera. Plus they'll get to claim that it's causing just enough economic hardship for them to ship more North Africans and Roma out, but not enough for them to have to cut their social services particularly much.
The UK and Switzerland will be fine since nobody really wants the Euro banking sector to be headquartered anyplace else and bankers bring in yuppies who spend money in shops.
Spain and Portugal will be in the shit but not quite badly enough to leave the Euro and their governments will probably subsidize a whole bunch of new RyanAir and EasyJet routes in order to bring in tourists willing to spend tons of money on cheap beer and tapas.
Yes. And I do get the impression the reason the Greeks hasn't yet said fuck it to the Euro is they still think they can squeeze some more loans out of the european banks, before they finally decide to run off with the money and default.
The question is though, why are other countries and banks still prepared to keep lending Greece money, when it is so obvious they are never going to pay it back?
Germany wants the Euro to take as large a hit as possible to boost exports and doesn't give a flying fuck it if hurts other countries and since Germany has tons of excess capital that other EU companies don't they can put pressure on for loans to go through.
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The question is whether or not Ireland decides to go this route as well. I suspect the Irish, because they have a much higher export base and considerably less harsh austerity measures than those put on Greece might be able to grow themselves out of their troubles given time. It' a good thing their ancestors learned how to make alcoholic beverages and crystal wineglasses that are beloved around the world.
Of course, Greece leaving is going to cause most Greek banks to fail and hurt large parts of the EU economy. The Germans will bitch and moan about this but secretly be delighted because it will lower the value of the Euro against the Dollar and the Yen, which will increase sales of their already growing export industry. Cheap BMWs for everyone!
Italy will stay in and be fine because their official economic numbers mean nothing since a huge part of their economy has always been off the books and under the radar anyway which means their unemployment numbers are bullshit. People are working - they are just getting paid in cash.
France will muddle through. The lower Euro will bring more tourists to Paris and sell more wine overseas and be a boon to the Riviera. Plus they'll get to claim that it's causing just enough economic hardship for them to ship more North Africans and Roma out, but not enough for them to have to cut their social services particularly much.
The UK and Switzerland will be fine since nobody really wants the Euro banking sector to be headquartered anyplace else and bankers bring in yuppies who spend money in shops.
Spain and Portugal will be in the shit but not quite badly enough to leave the Euro and their governments will probably subsidize a whole bunch of new RyanAir and EasyJet routes in order to bring in tourists willing to spend tons of money on cheap beer and tapas.
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The question is though, why are other countries and banks still prepared to keep lending Greece money, when it is so obvious they are never going to pay it back?
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