Political Question

[andrewducker]

At the moment the House of Lords are debating the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill.

I've heard numerous claims that this bill is incredibly unfair, and blatant gerrymandering by the Conservative Party.

Looking at the details, I'm feeling baffled. I can see a claim that the exemption for the three Scottish constituencies (Two Liberal Democrat, on Scottish National Party) are biased in their favour. But I can't see how a system whereby people are grouped together in what's going to be a massively arbitrary manner (each area must be within 5% of the national average, and are set up by independent bodies - the Boundary Commissions).

I don't really have a stake in this one - I'd just like someone to explain how this system would give an advantage to any one party. I can see that it could _remove_ advantage from a party if the old system with much less equal constituency sizes gave that party an advantage, but I'm totally failing to see how it's anything like gerrymandering.

Am I missing something obvious?

Comments

[andrewducker]

Yes :->

I see huge amounts of diversity in cities too. Take Glasgow where you have some of the richest streets in Scotland less than a hundred yards from some of the poorest ones, with life expectancies over a decade different to each other.

Of course, with multi-member STV this wouldn't be a problem either, because a larger area would vote in multiple representatives, one of whome would almost certainly be of the "I Like Sheep Party".

[marrog.livejournal.com]

Again, I think there's a practical difference in scale and type of priority clash in the correlation you're making between x urban dweller vs y urban dweller and rural vs urban.

(Edit: sorry, clarified)

[andrewducker]

I'm afraid I don't see why the rural/urban divide is harder for a representative to cope with than the rich/poor divide.

[pete stevens (from livejournal.com)]

AV is basically the way the French do it:

there goes any hope of anyone in the Conservative party, UKIP or the BNP voting in favour of it then...

[marrog.livejournal.com]

Well, for a start off you have both rich people and poor people in the country too. So that's twice as many groups to represent right there.

[communicator.livejournal.com]

Where there are multiple communities in an area you can create boundaries to represent communities (and I include conservative communities) or not. That is a perennial issue with boundary setting, which constantly balances representation against counting. To argue that head-counting is value-neutral, is false. It's an arguable position, but it's not a no-brainer.

[elmyra.livejournal.com]

As much as in my head I call it the "AV and gerrymandering bill", you're right - it isn't technically going to give one particular party a massive, predictable, consistent advantage as far as I can tell. I will still have a big impact on our political system - as big as the change of the voting system - and there are some really dodgy parts to that bill, incl. the way the new boundaries can't be challenged.

[andrewducker]

The thing is, with the new boundaries paying no attention to where the old boundaries (or communities) are, I'm not sure what grounds for challenges would be.

I'm sure, for instance, that there will be an endless stream of challenges from the Cornish that the boundaries pay no attention to the boundaries of Cornwall, but the answer to that will be "and?"

I'm beginning to wonder if the law should simply include an algorithm that will be used to create the boundaries, and any challenge would have to be to the algorithm, not the boundaries themselves :->

[elmyra.livejournal.com]

The bill *does* include an algorithm. (I've read it. ;-) I do think a valid challenge would be, for instance, if a constitunecy is frankensteined together from a rural and an urban area as you could argue that an MP would find it very difficult to adequately represent and address all their constituents' concern.

#include Grumble_about_how_single_member_constituencies_are_the_root_of_all_evil.h

[andrewducker]

Possibly you'll have better luck persuading me than marrog did - I can't see why it's more of a problem representing consituents that are both rural and urban than it is representing ones that are both recent-immigrant and long settled, or ones that are both rich and poor, or ones that are both Capitalists and Communists. Can you explain why rural/urban is a special, magical split?

Oh, and can you point me towards the algorithm?

Oh, and apologies for not getting back to you about orphan works, my brain has only just recovered from being ill. Is it still worth sending you my thoughts?

[andrewhickey.livejournal.com]

Actually, amazingly enough, Racist UKIP are supporters of the Yes campaign. The BNP and Tories are, though, the only two parties that have actually come out against it, though Labour are doing everything they can to stop us ever getting to have a vote...

[naath.livejournal.com]

Urban and Rural richness and poorness (especially poorness) tend to be different though, and the issues that rural communities face are often different to the issues that urban communities face even if their economic demographics are similar.

Also people get attached to place-based identities and often urban people attach to cities and rural people, er, not so much. Here in Cambridge the City Council and the County Council are often at odds over things like transport infrastructure; and I don't think that's so much to do with being a Tory/LD split and more to do with being about the different needs of people living in different situations.

[naath.livejournal.com]

Why should the Welsh get Wales to be Specially Separate but not the Cornish Cornwall?

I think you are vastly underestimating how tribal people feel about their region or city. And the difficulties then inherent in having an MP from OVER THERE in charge of US HERE (witness the complaints where parties "parachute" people in to safe seats rather than choosing local candidates).

[gonzo21.livejournal.com]

Right, so it's not the best system, but it's the best we're ever likely to get?

[gonzo21.livejournal.com]

Oh, I should think if the tories are deadset on this potentially catastrophic NHS reform, then they'll have difficulty holding into the LIbDems as even short-term junior coalition partners...

[andrewhickey.livejournal.com]

The best we can get through a parliament elected by FPTP, at least. I have hopes that within fifteen years we'll have a better system, but even if not we'll be better off with AV.

[gonzo21.livejournal.com]

And I suppose it would have to go some to be any worse than the stupid system we have now.

[robhu.livejournal.com]

Why not have a system where the MPs voting power is based on the amount of population they represent? If one MP covers 70,000 people and another 110,000 people then MP A has 0.7 votes while MP B has 1.1 votes.

[andrewducker]

Sounds possible, but fiddly. Probably easier just to go with a proportional system.

[andrewducker]

Well, not ever. But the best we're being offered this time around.

[robhu.livejournal.com]

Is it that fiddly? All you need to do is see the population in their area (which we already know) and then when they vote that's how many votes are cast (divide by 100,000 or whatever if you like smaller numbers).

Doesn't sound very fiddly to me.

[andrewducker]

Wales is being treated as a minor state, like NI and Scotland. I've not seen much of a push to make Cornwall into a separate state, but I'm prepared to believe I just don't see it...

[andrewducker]

I more meant each day when dealing with votes in parliament. And then you'll have different MPs looking up/down on each other depending on how many votes they're worth, etc.

Why not just do what Scotland does and have non-geographic MPs that pick up the bits and pieces in reasonably round numbers?

[iainjcoleman.livejournal.com]

Mebyon Kernow: The Party for Cornwall

[andrewducker]

Less than 5% though...