I think the crux of whether Microsoft is going down the Apple route or not is, as is said in the comments on your 2nd link, whether you have to go through the WinMo Marketplace or whether the restrictions only apply to apps sold through there and developers can still distribute apps independently without users having to "jailbreak" WinMo phones.

If you want to distribute through Marketplace to get your app seen, you play by their rules. If you don't want to play by their rules then you can distribute independently but don't get your app advetised in the place most folks are likely to look. That compromise makes far more sense to me than Apple's locked-down fickle-policy AppStore.

Any idea if that's the case or if they're just mimicking Apple with a Marketplace-or-nothing model?