andrewducker: (Default)
andrewducker ([personal profile] andrewducker) wrote2010-04-22 01:01 pm

Election Predictions

My election predictions (after conversation with [livejournal.com profile] chuma over here):

Vote results: Conservatives->Lib Dem->Labour
Seat results: Labour->Conservatives->Lib Dem

Public to get very confused and upset.

[identity profile] cartesiandaemon.livejournal.com 2010-04-22 01:45 pm (UTC)(link)
Right, but it's like saying "this picture looks good through a slight red[1] light filter. would it look good through a slight blue one?" It's probably much easier to find out what the picture is like from existing views of it through different filters, and then extrapolate, than try to find any evidence about what it would look like in blue directly.

And finding a picture which looks good to me, is probably the best reasonable approximation to finding a picture which looks good through a slight blue filter. The only exceptions are things which look disproportionately better (or worse) to me through a blue filter than otherwise, but I image those to be more edge cases than normal outcomes.

[1] choice of colours purely arbitrary, not representing political views :)