andrewducker: (Default)
andrewducker ([personal profile] andrewducker) wrote2010-04-22 01:01 pm

Election Predictions

My election predictions (after conversation with [livejournal.com profile] chuma over here):

Vote results: Conservatives->Lib Dem->Labour
Seat results: Labour->Conservatives->Lib Dem

Public to get very confused and upset.
mair_in_grenderich: (Default)

[personal profile] mair_in_grenderich 2010-04-22 12:19 pm (UTC)(link)
can we just adopt obama?

[identity profile] a-pawson.livejournal.com 2010-04-22 12:33 pm (UTC)(link)
We can probably have Bush if we ask nicely.

[identity profile] cartesiandaemon.livejournal.com 2010-04-22 01:08 pm (UTC)(link)
For the love of God, do not joke about that :) I thought after the clusterfuck of the last election Palin would have gone away for good, but apparently not. Britain electing a George Bush party to power might sound completely impossible, but I'm not sure I want to relax my vigilence against ANYTHING no matter how bad...

[identity profile] cartesiandaemon.livejournal.com 2010-04-22 01:07 pm (UTC)(link)
Well, (a) he's cool and (b) I agree with him much more than I agree with Bush. But even if you assume he would be responsible on civil liberty, gay rights, etc (which I don't know for sure) I don't know if I would necessarily agree with him on everything else more than the existing British politicians -- it depends what he actually thinks, not just what he thinks he can get through an American house & senate, and I've not listened to enough of his actual opinions to know.

(Or, I suppose, "he's not ACTUALLY socialist, he's just a lot MORE socialist than George Bush..." :))
simont: A picture of me in 2016 (Default)

[personal profile] simont 2010-04-22 01:36 pm (UTC)(link)
it depends what he actually thinks, not just what he thinks he can get through an American house & senate

Well, no, it would (hypothetically) depend on what he thought he could get through the British legislative obstacles, which would almost certainly differ from what he could get through the American ones and from what he actually thought!

[identity profile] cartesiandaemon.livejournal.com 2010-04-22 01:45 pm (UTC)(link)
Right, but it's like saying "this picture looks good through a slight red[1] light filter. would it look good through a slight blue one?" It's probably much easier to find out what the picture is like from existing views of it through different filters, and then extrapolate, than try to find any evidence about what it would look like in blue directly.

And finding a picture which looks good to me, is probably the best reasonable approximation to finding a picture which looks good through a slight blue filter. The only exceptions are things which look disproportionately better (or worse) to me through a blue filter than otherwise, but I image those to be more edge cases than normal outcomes.

[1] choice of colours purely arbitrary, not representing political views :)