Why I'm in favour of Proportional Representation

[andrewducker]

According to the BBC, the current polls show Lib Dems on 33%, Conservatives on 32%, Labour on 26%.
Which would give a seat allocation of Conservatives: 246, Labour 241, Lib Dems: 134.
Or, in a more easily digestible table format:

Party	Percentage	Seats
Lib Dems	33%	134
Conservatives	32%	246
Labour	26%	241

It should be pretty fucking obvious that this is an electoral system that is fucked in the head.

Comments

[matgb]

Important.

Do not use the BBC swing calulator

Just don't do it. It doesn't work, and hasn't worked since 1983. IT can't take into effect tactical squeeze, nor can it deal with leading party surge or the crystalisation effect.

Use http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ and put in 5% for to LD tactical voting from both main parties, with none against.

That'd accurately reflect previous voting patterns and current polling behaviour.

I repeat. Do not use the BBC generator, nor anything else that uses unmodified UNS.

Yes, there might be a post on this needed, again, but I need to not swamp the journal with polling geekery. Even though it's kinda what I do best.

[andrewducker]

That one also shows a massive distortion...

[matgb]

Oh, absolutely; they all do. IT's the least worst of the calculators I've found because it allows you to plug in some factors for local effects through the tactical thing.

But essentially seat calulation under FPTP when there're three parties in contention is a mugs game; look at 1983 when Thatcher got a landslide on a reduced share of the vote, or indeed any election in Scotland.

If you find a calculator that doesn't come up with distortions, I'd love to see it.

Also, the whole "Lib Dems can't win" thing is reinforced by posts about how biased the system is. LDs can win big if they get just a few more points; try using any of them and put LDs on 36%+ and see what begins to happen.