[identity profile] drdoug.livejournal.com 2010-03-04 02:42 pm (UTC)(link)
The reliability of condoms is about the same as the pill, IIRC.

Er, not so far as I know - although to be fair my memory was that the difference was much greater than the data I can put my hands on suggest.

Taking theNHS Clinical Knowledge Summary you get typical use failure rates (i.e. including all the user cockups, as it were) of 15% for condom and 8% for oral pill, and perfect use failure rates (method failure) of 2% for condom and 0.3% for oral pill.

(These percentages are women experiencing an unintended pregnancy within the first year of use.)

Long term implants/injectables are fairly recent as contraceptives and would only show up in the last quarter or so of the time span in the article. But they are a lot more reliable in both typical use and perfect use senses - Depo Provera is 3% typical use and 0.3% perfect use, and Implanon (etonogestrel implant) is 0.05%/0.05%, which is getting down to below detectable given sampling - ten times better than female sterilisation!

If you switched from Depo Provera to condoms, you'd be about five times as likely to get pregnant. If you switched from the oral pill to condoms, you'd be about two to five times as likely to get pregnant. If a lot of young women were doing that you'd definitely see an increase in the birth rate.