Two numbers I would like to see

[andrewducker]

1) Average age of first-time home buyers as a graph covering the last 50 years.
2) Average monthly mortgage repayment over a similar time period - adjusted for inflation.  Because this would adjust (somewhat) for house prices going up while interest rates are low.

Between them these would tell us something about the affordability of housing over a long period.

Comments

[marrog.livejournal.com]

http://www.ifaonline.co.uk/ifaonline/news/1349455/average-buyer-age-reaches-34

I think though that by going back 50 years you would skew your figures unrealistically, since the very idea of owning your own home (for the non-aristos) is a comparatively new thing, and my undestanding is very much that pre 1979 in the cities in particular people just didn't bother to own their own homes - renting throughout one's whole life was normal.

[andrewducker]

2007 was the very top of the boom - so I'd expect that to push up the age of first time buyers. But since then interest rates have dropped, and so have home prices, as the bubble burst, so I'd like to see a comparison to now - and over time.

Good point about the 50s/60s. My parents bought in 1970 - and I know that at that point it was the same cost to buy as to rent where they were. But I know it varies up and down. When I first bought in Edinburgh it was cheaper to buy my flat than the rent I'd been paying, but it was a pretty bad area I was moving into.

[cheekbones3.livejournal.com]

Problem with that is that mortgages are much less gettable. I bought a flat in 2007, and even though I'm much more prosperous now, I'd have no chance of buying anywhere at all.

[andrewducker]

Absolutely - which is why the age of first-time buyers is as important as affordability.

[marrog.livejournal.com]

http://www.compareandsave.com/news/Average-age-of-first-time-buyers-to-increase/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/3324876/Top-up-fees-will-raise-average-age-of-first-time-buyers-to-40.html
http://www.yourmortgage.co.uk/showPage.html?page=3625183

An interesting (in parts) messageboard thread here which has a list up to 2005 (although read around it) and a lot of links:
http://www.economicsuk.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=49&start=0

[andrewducker]

I generally don't trust that kind of articles/press releases - because they're of the format "If trends carry on as they have done for the last three years, then by the year 2030 we'll all be living to 3000 and have TVs that are five miles on a side!" - you need longer term trends than they're talking about, and the economy is generally cyclic.

The stats, on the other hand, are fantastic - see latest post, which confirms that the trend from 2005 onwards makes mortgages much more expensive. Sadly, I couldn't find stats for older than that yet. Still digging though!