Singularity 101

[andrewducker]

Over here Vernor Vinge talks about The Singularity. His personal definition is:
Humans, using technology, will be able to create, or become, creatures of superhuman intelligence.
[Poll #1390606]

Comments

[meihua.livejournal.com]

But we need to be planning for it now.

[autopope.livejournal.com]

You missed out the option "some other answer which I will deliver in comments".

(I'm plumping for "within 50 years, but there are tech imponderables that we can't see past just yet -- notably on the neurobiology side". And I'm only giving that answer on Tuesdays.)

[drjon.livejournal.com]

Define "superhuman intelligence"--I'd argue we still don't have a good understanding of "intelligence", let alone "consciousness"...

[drainboy.livejournal.com]

I'm slightly gobsmacked by the (currently) five people who think that it'll be impossible for us to create (or become) super human intelligences ever.

I wonder if that's because they think there's something innately special about our wetware that we can't mimic or improve upon or something flawed enough that we (being that flawed wetware) aren't capable of improving on it or that we'll all die in some imminent nuclear/swine-flu disaster.

That last one is the only reason I think we might not hit some sort of singularity (as described by Vinge) at least eventually.

[drdoug.livejournal.com]

Bit hit-and-run, which is annoying for a controversial answer, but I'd say we're already well past the Singularity.

With the aid of technology, we can already perform feats of superhuman intelligence and do so the whole time.

Focusing on whether computers are as (or more) intelligent like humans is silly. It's like trying to decide whether individual cell organelles are alive or not. It's a pointless question: the interesting phenomena in those terms are a level or two of description up from there.

To take one domain I happen to know well: no unaided human could conceivably sequence a single gene or elucidate a single protein structure. But nowadays any structural biology postgrad worth their salt could do that for you in fairly short order. And they could use that knowledge to invent something to address a particular biological challenge. With, of course, the aid of an astonishingly complex network of technology.

And at the other end of the experience/expertise spectrum for the human component of the system: my toddler can manipulate the ferromagnetic microstructure of a small piece of coated plastic, and the pattern of charge on many tens or hundreds of millions of tiny capacitors crammed together in to a piece of doped silicon, on the other side of the planet, without a second thought. He can even use this mechanism to transmit his image and voice to a grandparent in New Zealand in real time.

[anton-p-nym.livejournal.com]

Arguably we hit "a" singularity when the Gutenberg press came out; now every human being on the planet can, with training and relatively minor expense, possess eidetic memories of events to which they were not personally present. That makes for a radically different world-view.

Another singularity would be the introduction of broadcast radio, which extends human hearing to encompass the world.

And the Internet could count, as it takes the printing press and radio combined and then squares and cubes it by making it accessable to anyone of remarkably modest means.

-- Steve isn't certain that a Vingean "rapture of the geeks" singularity will strike, ever, but is certain that we're probably going to reinvent what it means to be human more than once in his remaining lifespan.

[andrewhickey.livejournal.com]

I think it entirely possible that the 'singularity' would happen within my lifetime. I also think it entirely possible that the human race will render the planet Earth uninhabitable before that happens. I suspect the chances of the latter are higher than the chances of the former, sadly, but intend to do what little I can to tip things the other way...

[random-redhead.livejournal.com]

I don't see how it will affect me. we live in a stratified society and I'm in the lower end. the people at the bottom will always work and live and seek pleasure and never have enough. it is the way of the world.