andrewducker: (Default)
andrewducker ([personal profile] andrewducker) wrote2008-12-11 03:30 pm
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[identity profile] randomchris.livejournal.com 2008-12-11 05:21 pm (UTC)(link)
I'm inclined to agree with your analysis of the stats on the face of it, but I think you may be forgetting the "Saving Private Ryan" factor - if somebody dies in the war and they have a brother who is still out there, they may be moved to a safer position; at the very least, they'll get a little bit of leave to attend the funeral, thus increasing their chances of survival at least a small amount.

However, a more useful point is possibly that somebody with more sons would have a higher chance of at least one of them being too young / too infirm / too short-sighted to fight (too young being the most likely), and thus a better chance of passing on their genes.

[identity profile] randomchris.livejournal.com 2008-12-11 06:17 pm (UTC)(link)
I can sort of see what he means with the proportions; if, say, there are odds of 50% of returning alive, then if you've got two sons at war, there's a 75% chance that one or both will return alive (87.5% for three, etc.)