andrewducker: (Default)
This article talks about there having being only 2,227 votes necessary to make Corbyn Prime Minister. And also only 287 votes necessary to give the Conservatives a majority by themselves.

That's a total of 2,514 votes out of 46,000,000 people - 0.005%, to shift 11 seats between victory for one group and victory for another.

While any voting system has points where a shift of a few votes will tip things over the edge, FPTP seems particularly prone to this. By breaking things into 650 individual elections, you are going to get many more where things are incredibly close, and 3 votes means everything.

AMS/MMP (as used in Scotland for MSPs) uses much larger groups for the additional proportional representatives, so there's much less chance of an individual area being that close to a tipping point. And STV (also used in Scotland, for councils) also clusters representatives together, for a similar effect.

It just seems ridiculous that targetting such a tiny number of votes can trigger such a massive difference in result.
andrewducker: (Default)
Good news: Hung parliament!
Bad news: Conservatives + DUP coalition is the only one that can get a majority
Even worse news: DUP are, frankly, worse than the Conservatives, being the party who have been blocking marriage equality in Northern Ireland
Sad News: If it wasn't for Unionists in Scotland voting Conservative to "send the SNP a message*" we'd have the possibility of a Lab+SNP+LibDem+PC+Green alliance.

As it is, Theresa May wins this year's award for "Conservative MP holding a vote to get her party into line, and throwing the country into chaos when it goes wrong".

Chances of another election this year: High
Chances of more people voting tactically at the next one, and getting the numbers to push the Conservatives out: Who the fuck knows.
Chances of any negotiation of Article 50, which continues to count down, getting underway: Slim

Just to note:
Purely vote-wise, Lab+SNP+LibDem is over 50%. Fuck FPTP.

*A completely pointless one, as it's the Scottish Government who pushes for Independence, and this election doesn't change that.
andrewducker: (Default)
andrewducker: (Default)
I get to vote tomorrow! Again!

As I haven't been on the winning side in a referendum or general election since 2001, I expect it to go horribly horribly badly.

Not locally, where it seems remarkably likely that the SNP are going to walk it*. But overall, despite YouGov getting all excitable, I fully expect the Conservatives to increase their majority, and us to plunge headlong off of the Brexit cliff. Because frankly the only thing that could save us right now is a surge in the number of young people voting, and all of my past experience tells me that...they won't.

My _ideal_ results would be a massively hung parliament, followed by Labour, SNP, LibDems, Greens, and Plaid Cymru being forced into an uneasy alliance, reforming the horrifically broken political system**, and then fumbling their way through the next few years until we can have a new election on proportional-ish grounds.

However, this was also my ideal result in 2015. And we all know how that went.

At the moment my best hope for the future is that after May completely fucks up Brexit and the country stares into the abyss, the SNP are able to run a campaign of "Let's get out of here, because the alternative is perpetual Conservative rule in a rights-free wasteland." and get independence. Which is not, frankly, how I would have wanted to achieve it.

But then I don't get much say in how the country is run.

Here, have a picture of Kimball, who is no longer a puppy:

and one of him with Uther:

*Not that I'll be voting for them, but they're a lot better than some of the alternatives.
**Where I know far too many people who are voting against something awful rather than for something good. This is one of the many curses of FPTP.
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