Date: 2017-05-11 11:40 am (UTC)
cmcmck: (Default)
From: [personal profile] cmcmck
Glad to see an admission that it was trans women who started Stonewall. That little bit of history so often gets re-written.

Date: 2017-05-11 03:24 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (economics)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
So having read the whole report (apart from the end note on the Seba model which I'm saving for a treat over the weekend) you will be shocked, shocked to learn that I largely agree with the report.

I think the report might turn out to be too sanguine about the stickiness of owner-operation. Not particularly because people love driving or dislike strangers but because people don't like changing their mind. I think the report is probably right about the lobbying efforts of oil companies and incumbent automotive players such as manufacturers, taxi driver unions and insurers. I think these two factors might combine and then push out adoption in the US and Europe by a few years.

I'm also not convinced that the technology is as ready for regulatory approval as people think. And this combines with the psychological inertia and the lobbying efforts above. I think stuff will get stuck in committee.

So I think my only major gripe with the report is that it might be too bullish about its 2021 tipping point.

I think the report is a little US-centric. I wonder if Europe might take a different, more public service orientated approach to Transport as a Service. I think existing bus service operators have an incentive to operate autonomous electric vehicles and might grab market share if they act promptly.

I note that (IIRC) approximately 50% of the energy used in the life time of a car is used in its manufacture. This probably offsets the increased electricity demand from shift to electric vehicles.

I look forward to a 10% payrise and the attendant improvement in public finances.

Things do not look good for the UK oil industry, although as a colleague commented, UK oil is a lighter, sweeter blend and might command a premium.

I wonder at the potential for retro-fitting existing internal combustion engine cars with autonomous capability. I think probably a no-go. I wonder what the international second hand car market is like. Can the US dump its obsolete cars on Africa?

Date: 2017-05-11 05:49 pm (UTC)
coth: (Default)
From: [personal profile] coth
Why do analysts think that people will settle for use of shared vehicles? When we look at what rich people who don't have to drive currently do:
- they own multiple special-purpose vehicles per household
- they allocate individual vehicles for the use of individuals within the household, including minor children and servants, to reflect the hierarchy of status within the household
- they use ownership and use of vehicles to maximise their own convenience and signal their own status, even when that use usurps and pollutes (noise, emissions) the public realm
- they delegate or outsource management and disposition of those vehicles using public goods (road space) to partially-offset costs of ownership
- they ignore or hold in contempt the laws relating to use of vehicles in the public realm because the costs that weigh heavily on ordinary people (fines for speeding, parking, misuse of road space) are trivial to the rich
- they despise and denigrate public transport and the vehicles of the less rich and look down on people who use shared resources

Extrapolate those tendencies to a world of increased wealth and availability of driverless vehicles, and every household increases its ownership of vehicles. You have removed one of the major discouragements to vehicle ownership. All the households that make do with one car per driver add cars for the convenience of non-drivers. Congestion increases. There are extra costs in providing space for all those extra vehicles to be. Public transport and vehicle sharing become less attractive, not more.

I will be glad if it is otherwise, and if reading this article more carefully can convince me otherwise then please tell me to read it again.

Date: 2017-05-11 09:00 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
Definately read the article again.

In fact read the actual report. You'll probably need to Google ReThinkX future of autonomous vehicles as the link in the article doesn't seem to be working.

The cost per passenger mile of shared electric autonomous vehicles in a Transport as a Service scenario is about 1/10th the cost of owner operated vehicles. That's a huge driver of changed behaviour. 1/10th of

Date: 2017-05-12 09:12 am (UTC)
coth: (Default)
From: [personal profile] coth
Thank you. I will try and find the time.

That kind of cost difference is indeed a huge driver for many people. Let's hope it's enough across the board. I know anecdote is not evidence, but in this area there are so many people who privilege car ownership over other considerations that I do worry.

Date: 2017-05-12 08:53 am (UTC)
anef: (Default)
From: [personal profile] anef
Completely off topic, but I had probably the best pizza of my life in Oslo.

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