Jun. 11th, 2017

andrewducker: (Default)
I get a regular weekly email from Facebook telling me how Andy Ducker's Links is doing. And apart from a couple of blips* I get about 1% growth every week.

I'm on 462 followers right now, and unlike on Twitter**, I'm fairly sure that all of those are real people.

So I did a bit of maths. And for a growth rate of 1%, it will take me 760 weeks to reach a million followers. Which is only 14 years.

I mean, I bet there's an S-curve in there, with there being only so many people who find my kind of links interesting. But I wonder how high it goes.***


*I hit 250 followers, and two days later one of my images went viral and gave me about 200 extra followers. This was surprising.
**My Twitter followers used to turn up in regular drips of a few per week as well. And then that just stopped. I still get retweeted a fair bit, but Twitter is definitely less busy for me than it used to be.
***And also what effect Facebook algorithms have there. I can tell when their algorithms change, because I'll spend a few weeks with numerous links going wide, and then a few weeks with hardly any traction, and without any serious change in content. And presumably they treat the bigger pages differently from the smaller ones.
andrewducker: (Default)
Jane asked me if the local church was still in use. And I told her I thought that I'd seen the signs up there change occasionally, so it probably was.

And a bit of googling later on found me its web page. Where it transpires that they've recently combined a couple of churches togther to form this congregation. And that for the 8,500 people in the parish it has a a congregation of...24. (Assuming that the whole congregation is in the photo they've used - and it probably is, as they've described themselves as being 20-30 strong).

That's 0.3%. And over 1/3 of those are _really_ elderly.

I believe that overall in Scotland they're doing better than that. But some more googling turns up that they lost 50,000 people between 2010 and 2013. They only have 300,000 people left. At what point does it become worthwhile joining a congregation just so you can be the last member of the Church and end up owning a lot of prime development opportunities?

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