Welcome

Dec. 4th, 2020 08:20 pm
andrewducker: (Default)
You can find more info on my userinfo page - but this is just here to say that I'm very happy to be friended by anyone that wants to read me. I rarely post friends-only, and that only tends to be about things that mention work, so if I don't friend you back you're not actually missing much...

If you do friend me, this would be a good place to leave a comment introducing yourself, and letting me know how you found me!

I have lots of awesome friends - if you want to make a few more then take a look at here for Dreamwidth and here for Livejournal, add a few people, and leave comment so people can add you too.

The links posts come from my page at Delicious and are posted to DW and LJ via a web app which I wrote, and you can use yourself here.


A note to Livejournal users:
You can easily leave comments using OpenID - this allows you to "sign in" using your LJ id, and that way I can tell you're you!
andrewducker: (Default)
andrewducker: (Default)
Plenty of stuff I've seen recently talks about the UKIP and how most of their supporters aren't actually focussed on Europe. UKIP have successfully positioned themselves in the "Modern life is rubbish" slot, with Europe, gay marriage, political correctness gone mad, health & safety gone mad, immigration, and various other things that the Daily Mail vent about all lumped in together as "stuff which we should not put up with".

But I wonder what the thing which pushed most of them over the edge was. We've seen a massive surge in popularity over the last couple of years, and I wonder if it's poverty that's done it (plenty of studies show that poor people tend to be more small-c conservative, focussed on the in-group and generally selfish, for understandable reasons), or if this is happening because a bunch of previous Conservative supporters have simply given up on the Conservatives ever going back to being Their Kind of People (my understanding is that the first 15% of the UKIP in any area are Conservative supporters, and after that they're equally Conservative, Labour, and protest-voters-who-used-to-vote-Lib-Dem).

Of the latter, I strongly suspect that it will have been gay marriage that pushed them over the edge. It seems unlikely to have been fiscal policy/taxes, and I can't think what else they'd have been depending on the Conservatives doing that they haven't lived up to. Any thoughts?

Edit: Just to make it entirely clear, I am _not_ saying "All UKIP supporters hate gay people.", nor do I believe any such thing.
andrewducker: (Default)
[livejournal.com profile] steer just published this on his journal:

"I bet Andrew Ducker that before May 4th 2033 the UK (or that part of the UK which stays with London after any devolution) will retain First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) for general elections. Further, no English county council/unitrary authority elections (of the type described in [1]) will switch system away from FPTP.

The person who loses will buy the winner a drink of their choice (within reason -- pints of champagne or bottles of aged whiskey are out) in a bar in the winner's home city... presence over video accepted if distance precludes attendance in person.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013"





I agree with some of his reasoning, but believe that self-interest in supporting the good of individual parties will overcome worries about hypocrisy, and that having a fourth* party with a large chunk of popular support will make it even more obvious to people how broken the system is - and that having 40-odd percent of people voting for parties that are disadvantaged by the voting system is not sustainable over the long-term (i.e. 20 years).

Of course, if UKIP support crumbles by the time of the next election then this becomes much less likely. We shall see - and I shall try to remain optimistic.

*As I've discussed elsewhere, I'd love the Greens to get enough mainstream support to make this five. I don't see it any time soon though.
andrewducker: (Default)
While I am largely opposed to the UKIP platform*, I am terribly amused by the results of the local elections, with them achieving 23% of the vote.

This leaves the Conservatives in an awful position - if they move rightwards then they risk losing the people in the center, if they stay where they are then they risk losing the people that left for the UKIP. This is particularly funny because if they hadn't come out against AV they would be a second vote for quite a lot of those UKIP voters. As it is the vote split will do terribly unpleasant things for them.

Additionally, a fourth uk-wide party with popular support makes FPTP look even sillier, which has to be a good thing in the long run.

(You can remind me of this post when the first UKIP Prime Minister is elected.)

Edit: Nice summary from the BBC of what this means for the different parties.


*From memory. Their website seems to have gone down under load, so I can't check the details.
andrewducker: (Default)


via Keir Liddle, who commented "Dude should have been a social scientist."

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